塔里木河干流径流量变化与太阳黑子活动的关系

本文运用Morlet 小波分析方法, 分析了1957-2011 年塔里木河干流年径流量与太阳黑子相对数的关系。结果表明, 55 年间塔里木河干流年径流量和太阳黑子相对数都呈减小的趋势。塔里木河干流年径流量变化存在4 a、8 a、18 a、21 a 左右的主周期。在8~9 a 和18~21 a 尺度上年径流量序列与太阳黑子相对数序列具有相近的主周期。年径流量变化所表现的4 年主周期与太阳黑子活动关系不大;18~21 a 主周期特征应主要受太阳黑子活动的影响;8 a 主周期也与太阳黑子活动显著相关, 但由于受到人类活动的强烈干扰, 致使在20 世纪80 年代以后两者关系被扰乱。预测2012-2020 年间塔里木河干流将处于枯水期, 年径流量的平均值约为35×10⁸~40×10⁸ m³。

Relationship between annual runoff of the mainstream of Tarim River and sunspots activity

In this paper, we used Morlet wavelet transform method to analyze the relationship between annual runoff in the mainstream of the Tarim River and sunspots activity dring 1957-2011. Results indicated that both annual runoff of the mainstream of Tarim River and number of sunspots were decreased dring 1957-2011. There were main periods of 4 a, 8 a, 18 a, and 21 a in annual runoff. On the scales of 8~9 a and 18~21 a, the annual runoff and number of sunspots had similar primary cycles. Sunspots activity had almost no effect on the characteristics of annual runoff change of the 4 a cycle, but the characteristics of the 18~21 a cycle were mainly influenced by sunspots activity. The annual runoff change of 8 a primary cycle was once closely related to sunspots activity, but the correlation was disrupted after 1980 due to strong interferences of human activities. This paper forecasts that 2012-2020 may be a withered water period for annual runoff in the mainstream of Tarim Riverin, and the average annual runoff may be about 35×10⁸~40×10⁸ m³．