A study of the regularities in solar magnetic activity by singular spectral analysis |
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Authors: | A. Yu. Loskutov I. A. Istomin O. L. Kotlyarov K. M. Kuzanyan |
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Affiliation: | (1) Moscow State University, Vorob’evy gory, Moscow, 119899, Russia;(2) Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radiowave Propagation, Russian Academy of Sciences, Troitsk, 142092, Russia |
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Abstract: | The method of singular spectral analysis (SSA) is described and used to analyze the series of Wolf numbers that characterizes solar activity from 1748 until 1996. Since this method is relatively new, we detail its algorithm as applied to the data under study. We examine the advantages and disadvantages of the SSA method and the conditions for its applicability to an analysis of the solar-activity data. Certain regularities have been found in the dynamics of this series. Both short and long (80–100-year) periodicities have been revealed in the sunspot dynamics. We predict the solar activity until 2014. |
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Keywords: | Sun nonlinear dynamics solar cyclicity |
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