Using geomagnetic indices to forecast the next sunspot maximum

The Babcock solar dynamo model and known interactions of the interplanetary magnetic field with the earth's magnetosphere are used to explain the relations found between geomagnetic indices at solar minimum and the sunspot number at the following solar maximum. We augment the work of Kane (1987) by updating his method of analysis, including recent smoothed aa and A_P indices. We predict a smoothed maximum sunspot number of 163±40 to peak in October 1990±9 months for solar cycle 22. This value is close to the Schatten and Sofia (1987) predicted value of 170±25, using more direct solar indicators.Now at Dept. of Astronomy, Univ. of Washington