建设海洋强国的政治学解释——基于注意力配置的分析

基于注意力政治学的领导人注意力分析框架,对自2012年以来建设海洋强国这一国家级海洋战略的启动和实施进行分析,探讨建设海洋强国的作用机制。文章提出：1）领导人与政府有限的注意力是国际体系结构变化与国家行为产生之间的中介变量。2）国际局势变化、地方政府竞争、突发事件刺激和以往的从政经历是建设海洋强国的触发因素,驱使领导人和政府的注意力发生转移。3）领导人通过讲话、批示、视察等活动推动政策实施,这是测量领导人及政府对于建设海洋强国的注意力依据。注意力对建设海洋强国的作用机制体现在：1）国家海洋战略重置后,领导人与政府的注意力继续作用于新海洋战略的实施过程;2）领导人通过自身一系列的活动,如视察、批示,加快海洋战略的运行;3）通过设立高级别机构,高位推动建设海洋强国;4）通过国家媒体对海洋事务的持续议程设置,固定公众和社会注意力。上述作用机制有效地引导并锁定了中国对海洋事务的关注方向与重点,改变了传统中国“重陆轻海”的战略文化与社会认知。

Political Interpretation of Building a Maritime Power: An Analysis Based on Attention Allocation

In 2012, with the claimant countries of the South China Sea dispute stepping up their occupation of marine resources and the deep involvement of foreign powers in the South China Sea issue, the surrounding maritime situation became increasingly complex and there were multiple conflicts of interest caused by the continuous erosion of China's maritime rights. In order to effectively exercise sovereign rights and jurisdiction over the exclusive economic zones and continental shelf in various sea areas, including the South China Sea, and shape a peaceful and stable maritime security environment, China has launched a national maritime strategy with the theme of building maritime power. Current research on the building of maritime power has paid greater attention to the concept analysis, development goals, and implementation path of maritime power, mainly focusing on the ought aspect of maritime power, with little attention to the actual aspect. Based on the attention analysis framework of leaders in attention politics, this study analyzes the launch and implementation of the national marine strategy of building maritime power after 2012 and explains the mechanism of building maritime power. Given this background, this research shows the following: (1) The limited attention of leaders and governments is the mediating variable between changes in the international system structure and the generation of state behavior. (2) Changes in the international situation, local government competition, emergency stimulation, and previous political experience are the trigger factors for building maritime power, causing the attention of leaders and governments to shift. (3) Leaders promote policy implementation through speeches, instructions, inspections, and other activities, which are the basis for measuring the attention of leaders and governments for building a maritime power. Research on the mechanism of building a maritime power shows: (1) Following the reconfiguration of the national maritime strategy, the attention of the leaders and governments continues to play a role in the implementation process of the new maritime strategy. (2) Leaders accelerate the operation of maritime strategies through their own activities such as inspections and instructions. (3) Building maritime power has been promoted to a high level through the establishment of high-level institutions. (4) Public and social attention should be fixed through the continuous agenda-setting of maritime affairs by the state media. This mechanism has effectively guided and locked the focus of China's attention on maritime affairs, thus effectively reshaping the traditional strategic culture and social cognition that China values land over the sea.