Effect of Stochastic MJO Forcing on ENSO Predictability |
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| Authors: | PENG Yuehu DUAN Wansuo XIANG Jie |
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| Affiliation: | The State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, Department of Military Oceanography, Dalian Naval Academy, Dalian 116018, Institute of Meteorology, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 211101,The State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,Institute of Meteorology, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 211101 |
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| Abstract: | Within the frame of the Zebiak-Cane model, the impact of the uncertaintiesof the Madden--Julian Oscillation (MJO) on ENSO predictability was studiedusing a parameterized stochastic representation of intraseasonal forcing.The results show that the uncertainties of MJO have little effect on themaximum prediction error for ENSO events caused by conditional nonlinearoptimal perturbation (CNOP); compared to CNOP-type initial error, the modelerror caused by the uncertainties of MJO led to a smaller predictionuncertainty of ENSO, and its influence over the ENSO predictability was notsignificant. This result suggests that the initial error might be the mainerror source that produces uncertainty in ENSO prediction, which couldprovide a theoretical foundation for the data assimilation of the ENSOforecast. |
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| Keywords: | Madden--Julian Oscillation (MJO) El Ni~{n}o--Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) model error |
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