Effect of Stochastic MJO Forcing on ENSO Predictability

Within the frame of the Zebiak-Cane model, the impact of the uncertainties of the Madden--Julian Oscillation (MJO) on ENSO predictability was studied using a parameterized stochastic representation of intraseasonal forcing. The results show that the uncertainties of MJO have little effect on the maximum prediction error for ENSO events caused by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP); compared to CNOP-type initial error, the model error caused by the uncertainties of MJO led to a smaller prediction uncertainty of ENSO, and its influence over the ENSO predictability was not significant. This result suggests that the initial error might be the main error source that produces uncertainty in ENSO prediction, which could provide a theoretical foundation for the data assimilation of the ENSO forecast.