滑坡灾害综合评判决策系统研究

滑坡灾害分析是系统性工程，不仅需要准确反映其现状动态特征，而且还应体现其安全稳定状况，为工程治理提供可靠依据。以GIS和Surfer为基础平台，有效耦合各项功能模块，开发出滑坡灾害综合评判决策系统，实现其现状动态分析、变化规律预测及稳定特性研究。详细阐述了系统的体系结构、总体设计、开发基础、功能模块集成，着重研究了系统功能实现的应用方面，包括地形信息处理、虚拟地景可视化、综合决策分析、变形预测预报和稳定性数值分析，分别对其功能内容、理论基础和应用流程进行具体分析。针对滑坡工程治理的效果评价问题，采用系统模糊马尔科夫链模型予以决策分析，在详细阐述其理论结构的基础上引入工程实例进行具体研究。结果表明：滑坡治理效果较好，模型分析客观地反映了其目前所处的安全稳定状态。综上可见，该系统可为滑坡灾害分析与工程治理实现信息化、动态化、决策化提供可行的技术平台。

Research on comprehensive evaluation decision system for landslide disaster

Landslide disaster analysis is a systems engineering, which not only reflects the status and dynamic characteristics accurately, but also embodies the safety and stable condition. It can provide reliable evidences for engineering treatment. Based on GIS and Surfer, various function modules are coupled; and the comprehensive evaluation decision system for landslide disaster is developed in order to realize status analysis, variation prediction and stability characteristics research. The system structure, global design, development foundation and integration of function modules are described in detail. Besides, the application aspacts of system function realization are studied emphatically, including terrain information treatment analysis, virtual landscape visualization, comprehensive decision analysis, deformation prediction and numerical analysis of stability. Then, the functional contents, theory foundation and application process are analyzed. Moreover, according to the problem of effect appraisal of landslide treatment, the fuzzy Markov chain model is used to make decision analysis. Based on the theory structure of model described in detail, a case study is introduced concretely. The results show that landslide treatment achieves good effect; and model analysis can objectively reflect the safety and stable state of landslide nowadays. Therefore, the system provides a feasible technical platform which can realize informatization, dynamic and decision-making for landslide disaster analysis and engineering treatment.