京津冀基础设施建设与人口集聚耦合演进分析 ——基于推拉理论解析

引入效用函数解析推拉理论,对系统发展模型、协调模型、耦合模型和相对发展度模型进行了改进并综合,构建了耦合-协调模型;分析了城市基础设施建设与人口集聚存在先促进后抑制的倒“U”形关系;对2006~2016年京津冀基础设施建设与人口集聚耦合的演进规律进行了解析。研究表明,基础设施建设与人口集聚两系统的发展指数、耦合度均呈现递增趋势,协同基础良好,耦合驱动潜力巨大;系统耦合由拮抗阶段趋向高水平耦合阶段发展;系统在时序上多处于同步发展状态,区域间耦合趋同基本实现;系统耦合度在空间分布存在差异性,并达到倒“U”形关系的顶峰;未来应着重考虑避免“城市病”问题的发生。

Evolutional Analysis of Coupling between Infrastructure and Population Agglomeration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region: An Analysis Based on Push-pull Theory

By introducing utility function into the analysis of push-pull theory and drawing lessons from existing research, this article builts the coupling-coordination model to analyze the coupling between infrastructure and population agglomeration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on the improvement and integration of the system development model, coordination model, coupling model and relative degree of development model. And the inverted U-shaped relationship between urban infrastructure construction and population agglomeration is analyzed; a comprehensive index system covering 11 aspects and 31 indicators of urban infrastructure construction and population agglomeration is constructed; an empirical analysis of the evolution laws of the coupling between infrastructure construction and population agglomeration in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei region from 2006 to 2016 is made and an in-depth analysis of the characteristics of comprehensive development index, coupling status and coordinated development stage between the two systems is also part of the research. The research results reveal that the development index and coupling degree of the two systems, infrastructure construction and population agglomeration, show similar trend of increase, and there exists a good foundation for the coordinated development and a great coupling driving potential in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Region; the system coupling is developing from antagonistic stage to high-level coupling stage; the systems mostly develop synchronously in time sequence, and the inter-regional coupling degree is basically realized; there are differences in spatial distribution of system coupling degree which has reached the top of the inverted U-shaped relationship. In the future, we should focus on avoiding the occurrence of“urban diseases” and do more research on the two systems from the dynamic perspective.