中国现代产业体系四位协同的地区差异及动态演进

构建实体经济-科技创新-现代金融-人力资源等四位协同指标体系,基于2001~2015年省级面板数据,对中国现代产业体系四位协同度进行系统测度。分析四位协同度的地区差距,对其动态演进过程进行科学预测。研究发现：① 中国现代产业体系四位协同度呈波动性上升态势,其中东部地区四位协同度最高、中部次之、西部最低。② 现代产业体系四位协同度区域相对差距与绝对差距均呈扩大趋势,东部地区内差异与东-西部地区间差异均最大,其中超变密度差距是区域间差距主要来源。③ 现代产业体系四位协同度演进方式表现为邻近演进,低水平阶段向更高水平阶段跃升概率增大,整体向更高阶段发展。

Regional Differences and Dynamic Evolution of the Quaternity Cooperation of Modern Industrial System in China

The construction of modern industrial system is the key-point of achieving high-quality economic growth in the new era. Based on the macro background of the construction of modern industrial system and the perspective of synergetics, this article uses the provincial panel data (not including data of Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) to construct the quaternity cooperative index system of tangible economy, science and technology innovation, modern finance and human resources. When the quaternity cooperative index in China is systematically measured, the relative and absolute regional differences of the quaternity cooperative index are deeply analyzed by using Dagum-Gini coefficient and nuclear density method, and its dynamic evolution process is predicted scientifically by Markov Chains method. The findings are provided as follows: 1) Coordination of tangible economy, science and technology innovation, modern finance and human resources in our country has maintained a certain growth trend. However, the overall level of quaternity cooperative index is still at a relatively low level, and the growth rate of provinces and cities varies from region to region and within each region. There are obvious spatial differences among the quaternity cooperation, of which the eastern region is the highest, the middle part is the second, and the western part is the lowest. 2) The relative and absolute regional disparity of the quaternity cooperation is all increasing. The difference within eastern region and difference between the eastern region and the western region are the largest, the difference between the western region and the east-central region is the second, and the difference between the central region and the central-west region is the least. The intensity of the transvariation among regions is the main source of regional gap, but with the change of time, the contribution rate of the intensity of the transvariation among regions decreases gradually while the contribution rate of regional disparity increase gradually. 3) The results of Kernel nuclear density show that the center of the distribution curve of the quaternity cooperation gradually moves to the right, and the main peak value gradually decreases, which indicates that the quaternity cooperation of modern industrial system in China is in an increasing trend. However, absolute regional differences show a trend of further expansion. At the same time, the forecast result of Markov indicates that the evolution of the quaternity cooperation degree is the neighboring evolution, and the probability of transition from the low level to the high level is increasing. The overall development is towards a higher level. The conclusions of this article are of great significance for promoting regional coordinated development and the construction of modern industrial system in the new era.