基于恐袭数据的“一带一路”沿线国家安全态势及时空演变分析

依据全球恐怖主义数据库,选取恐怖袭击事件总起数、恐怖袭击死亡人数、恐怖袭击受伤人数、恐怖袭击财产损失程度4项指标构建国家安全态势评价指标体系,运用标准差椭圆和核密度估计法对1970~2017年“一带一路”沿线国家安全态势时空演化特征进行分析。研究表明：① 在时间上,从1970~2017年“一带一路”沿线国家安全态势日益严峻,阶段性特征显著,共经历了“兴起-活跃-回落”3个阶段;② 在空间上,国家安全态势标准差椭圆向北偏西方向移动,重心转移路径为西亚北非地区-南亚地区-西亚北非地区;“9·11”事件发生前后空间特征呈现由三大“恐怖主义活跃区域”和1个“U型恐怖主义潜伏圈”向两大“动荡核心圈”和3个“动荡次中心”的转化。

Security Situation and Spatio-temporal Evolution Along Belt and Road Based on Terrorist Attack Data

The national safety evaluation, risk assessment and forecasting of countries along the “Belt and Road” initiative are the foundation and prerequisite for the successful implementation of the “National Initiative” and have become the key issues in the study of political geography. Based on the Global Terrorism Database, an evaluation system of the national security situation including the number of terrorist attacks, the number of deaths, the number of terrorist injuries and degree of property losses in terrorist attacks, was developed. Employing Standard Deviation Ellipse and Nuclear Density Estimation method approach to measure the spatio-temporal characteristics of the national security situation. The results show that: 1) From the analysis of time evolution, the national security situation along the “Belt and Road” became increasing seriously from 1970 to 2017, with significant phase characteristics and experienced 3 stages of “rising-active-falling”; 2) From the perspective of spatial analysis, standard deviation ellipse of national security situation moving northwest, the center of gravity path experienced a shift from the West Asia and North Africa, South Asia to West Asia and North Africa area; The spatial characteristics around the “9.11” incident have changed from the 3 "terrorist active areas" and "U-type terrorist latent circles" to the 2 "turbulent core areas" and 3 "turbulent centers".