气候变化的历史记录和可能原因—IPCC 1995第一工作组报告评述

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A Review on Records and the Possible Causes of Global Climate Changes

Much work has been conducted about the analyses of the instrumental and paleo- climate data in the past two decades. It has also been recognized that the paleo-climate data and the analysis are of importance for the understanding of the modern global climate changes. However, in the newly published IPCC report, less attention has been given to the paleo-climate history, and some treatments for the paleo-data may be improper. A review on the climate change history from instrumental as well as paleo-records is given, and the relevance of the paleo-data for the detection and attribution studies of the global climate change is discussed. On the basis of the present knowledge, it seems that the natural variability may account for at least part of the past one hundred year climate warming. Up to now, we still can not rule out the possibility that the global warming in the past century is caused mainly by the natural forcing. This conclusion does not mean that the human-induced climate change will not occur in the future, but it indeed indicates the complicated situation the scientists face at present in understanding the causes of the near-past climate change. More research works have to be conducted before we can tell the true story about the global warming and its impacts on social-economy.