A nonlinear impulse response model of the coupled carbon cycle-climate system (NICCS) |
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Authors: | G Hooss R Voss K Hasselmann E Maier-Reimer F Joos |
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Institution: | (1) Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Bundesstrasse 55, 20146 Hamburg, Germany E-mail: hooss@dkrz.de, DE;(2) Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, 3012 Bern, Switzerland, CH |
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Abstract: | Impulse-response-function (IRF) models are designed for applications requiring a large number of climate change simulations,
such as multi-scenario climate impact studies or cost-benefit integrated-assessment studies. The models apply linear response
theory to reproduce the characteristics of the climate response to external forcing computed with sophisticated state-of-the-art
climate models like general circulation models of the physical ocean-atmosphere system and three-dimensional oceanic-plus-terrestrial
carbon cycle models. Although highly computer efficient, IRF models are nonetheless capable of reproducing the full set of
climate-change information generated by the complex models against which they are calibrated. While limited in principle to
the linear response regime (less than about 3 ∘C global-mean temperature change), the applicability of the IRF model presented has been extended into the nonlinear domain
through explicit treatment of the climate system's dominant nonlinearities: CO2 chemistry in ocean water, CO2 fertilization of land biota, and sublinear radiative forcing. The resultant nonlinear impulse-response model of the coupled
carbon cycle-climate system (NICCS) computes the temporal evolution of spatial patterns of climate change for four climate
variables of particular relevance for climate impact studies: near-surface temperature, cloud cover, precipitation, and sea
level. The space-time response characteristics of the model are derived from an EOF analysis of a transient 850-year greenhouse
warming simulation with the Hamburg atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM3-LSG and a similar response experiment
with the Hamburg carbon cycle model HAMOCC. The model is applied to two long-term CO2 emission scenarios, demonstrating that the use of all currently estimated fossil fuel resources would carry the Earth's climate
far beyond the range of climate change for which reliable quantitative predictions are possible today, and that even a freezing
of emissions to present-day levels would cause a major global warming in the long term.
Received: 28 January 2000 / Accepted: 9 March 2001 |
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