全球恐怖袭击事件时空演变与态势分析

恐怖主义具有极大的破坏性与杀伤力,已成为世界和平与安全的最大威胁之一。本文以全球恐怖主义数据库（GTD）为基础,采用伤亡人数的热点分析以及各区域事件频次的层次聚类方法,对全球恐怖主义袭击事件的时空演变特征与态势进行分析研究,探讨了2013-2017年内全球高伤亡率热点区域的空间分布与变化,并对不同地区的袭击频次进行统计并划分了事发率严重等级。研究表明：① 5年内,伤亡人数在2014年为最高达103 134人,而后逐年递减的趋势;袭击频次呈现一种锯齿状为“猖狂-治理-收敛-不治理-再次猖狂”的模式;② 中东及北非地区是恐怖主义袭击的严重区与策源地,也是高伤亡率的热点区域,平均每年伤亡人数约占全球的49%,事件发生频次约占40%,而南亚伤亡人数约占22.8%,袭击频次约31.1%,撒哈拉以南的非洲地区次之,东南亚及西欧、东欧、南美地区也为恐怖主义的暴动区域;③ 全球恐怖主义的时空演变趋势已形成以中东及北非地区以及与撒哈拉以南的非洲交界区域为爆发中心,逐渐向南亚、东南亚、西欧地区扩散的趋势,为新的恐怖主义活跃区。通过对5年内全球恐怖主义的时空演变和态势,以及造成恐怖主义发生的原因进行分析,可为反恐组织以及避免袭击事件的发生提供有效的参考和决策辅助。

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Situation Analysis of Global Terrorist Attacks

Terrorist attack is violent and destructive, resulting in casualties and property losses; it also involves social unrests, causing significant psychological pressure and hindering normal economic development. The data of this paper came from the global terrorism database, spanning from 2013 to 2017. GIS technology and the statistical theory were used to process and analyze the data of global terrorist attacks, and to analyze the spatial evolution of global terrorist attacks and the overall situation. The attributes selected for the data processing include latitude and longitude, regional information, casualties, etc., which were used for the hotspot analysis of casualties, hierarchical clustering of regional event frequency, and the time and space of global terrorist attacks. The evolution characteristics and situation were analyzed and studied. The spatial distribution and changes of the global high-injury hotspots in the five years were discussed, and the frequency of attacks in different regions was counted and the severity of incidents was classified. Specifically, based on the number of casualties, we used the ArcGIS software to draw the 2013-2017 casualty hotspot map and cold spot map to analyze the spatial trend of terrorism, and used the SPSS software to draw hierarchical clustering pedigree maps for regions of different severity levels. Results show: (1) In the 5 years, the number of casualties reached 202 099 in 2014, and then decreased year by year; the frequency of attacks showed a jagged pattern of “maniac-governance-convergence-no governance-again mania”. (2) The Middle East and North Africa regions were the main sources of terrorist attacks and also the hot spots with high casualties. The average annual casualties accounted for about 49% of the world's total, and the frequency of incidents accounted for about 40%, while the number of casualties in South Asia wass about 22.8%, the attack frequency was about 31.1%, followed by sub-Saharan Africa. By contrast, Southeast Asia, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, and South America were the emerging areas of active terrorism. (3) Global terrorism in general centered on the border area of the Middle East, North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa, and gradually spreaded to South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Western Europe. Our findings can inform the decision-makers of anti-terrorism organizations to help enhance global security.