全球变暖背景下中国东部气候变迁及其对物候的影响

鉴于我国东部地区对全球气候变化的高度敏感性，本文应用1960~2014年的CRU和HadISST等全球地表（地球表面的简称，包括陆地和海洋表面，下同）温度再分析资料，采用地理等温线和春、秋季（代表月地表温度）时间的变迁速度等指标，分析了全球和中国东部地区的气候变化速度以及春、秋季物候的变化。结果显示:（1）自1960年以来，全球地表温度呈现十分清晰的上升趋势，其中，北半球（陆地）比南半球（海洋）变暖更显著，地理等温线向两极方向迁移；（2）南、北半球的春（秋）季明显提前（滞后）；（3）中国东部地表温度呈快速上升趋势，陆地升温虽普遍快于海洋，但东部海域升温快于相邻的陆地，地理等温线总体向北迁移，海域的春、秋季物候变化较陆地显著；（4）中国东部生物物候受气候变化影响明显，海域地理等温线的北移受到沿岸地形的抑制，海洋生物适应气候变化的能力受到限制，海洋生态系统及生物多样性将面临气候变化带来的显著风险。

The Pace of Climate Change and Its Impacts on Phenology in Eastern China

Due to the high sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change in eastern China, based on the CRU (Climatic Research Unit) and HadISST (Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature dataset) global surface temperature reanalysis data from 1960 to 2014, two measurement indexes, i.e. the geographic isotherm shift over time and the seasonal timing of surface temperature, are applied to analyze the velocity of climate change and phenology change across the globe and in eastern China. Results show that the global has experienced a significant warming trend during 1960-2014. The warming is faster in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere and on land than in the ocean. Meanwhile, the geographic isotherms basically move to the poles and spring arrives early and fall begins late in both hemispheres. East China exhibits a prominent warming trend over the decades, the surface temperature on land generally rises faster than in the ocean, and geographic isotherms basically move northward. However, the surface temperatures in the East China seas rise much more rapid than on the adjacent lands, and the shift timing of surface temperature in the ocean is more remarkable than on land. Finally, the biological phenology in eastern China is obviously affected by the pace of climate change, and the movement of geographic isotherms is inhibited by land/sea boundaries, the ability of marine organisms to adapt to climate change is limited, and the marine ecosystem and biodiversity are facing a significant risk induced by climate change.