内蒙古干草原春季火险预报模型的研究

该文利用内蒙古锡盟地区1986~1997年的草原火灾及同期气象资料, 采用数学模拟的建模方法, 研制了该地区重点火险区域 (包括4个旗、市) 的春季草原火险天气预报模型。该预报模型综合考虑了火灾发生当日及前期气象要素对草原火险的影响, 试报检验结果可靠, 可用于当地的火险预报, 为防火部门制定防火决策提供依据和指导, 并可产生较大的社会经济效益。

Research on the Spring Fire-risk Forecasting Model in Dry Grasslands in Inner Mongolia

Using grassland fire data and meteorological data of the same period from 1986 to 1997 in Xilin Gol Meng, the grassland spring fire risk weather forecast model for the high fire risk districts is presented. The forecast model synthetically considers the influences of meteorological components on grassland fire risk at the time of fire risk occurring and the days before. Trail forecast model results are reliable. The model can be used to local grassland fore risk forecasting, provide a basis and instruction for the fireproof departments in formulating the fireproof policies and bring about social, economic and ecological benefits.