Determination of Scenario Earthquakes for Zigong City

Using deterministic methods in combination with probabilistic methods, the authors have studied in detail the seismogeological background, seismogenic faults and their abilities in generating earthquakes, the temporal and spatial distribution features of seismicity; predicted the seismicity tendency in future 50 years; and studied the expected magnitude and expected distance of destructive earthquakes that may attack Zigong City. On such a basis, 2 scenario earthquakes have been determined for Zigong City. The results would be helpful for the local government and authorities to work out a great earthquake emergency pre-plan and to establish the great earthquake fast-response system.