| Abstract: | Since the completion of the network in January 1983, the electric field of the earth has been continuously monitored at four sites near Thessaloniki, the capital of northern Greece. From the present study and from previous investigations by similar measurements in Greece, it is evident that transient changes of the electrotelluric field occur prior to earthquakes. The analysis of these electric forerunners leads in many cases to a successful prediction of the epicentral area, the magnitude and the time of the impending event. Predictions prior to regional earthquakes are issued and documented with telegrams.From November 1983 until the end of May 1984 twelve earthquakes (ML > 3.5) occurred in the vicinity of Thessaloniki. Ten of these were predicted and warnings given by telegram, whereas two smaller seismic events were missed. Two additional predictions were unsuccessful. Independent of their magnitudes, predicted events took place within a time window of 6 hrs to 6 days after the observations of the electrotelluric anomalies. The accuracy of the predicted epicenters in eight cases is better than 100 km, which corresponds roughly to the mean distance between the electric stations. Magnitude estimates deviate by less than 0.5 magnitude units from the seismically observed ones.Considering the two largest earthquakes, it is shown that the probability of making each of these predictions by chance is of the order of 10−2. |
