Are large wildland fires - as anomalous ecologic processes - natural hazards |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, 401 Park Drive, West of Landmark Center, Boston, MA 02215, United States;2. Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, Neuherberg, Germany;3. Department of Environmental Medicine, and Public Health, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States;4. Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States;5. Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, United States;6. Institute of Medical Information Science, Biometry, and Epidemiology, Ludwig Maximilians University, Munich, Germany |
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| Abstract: | To account for the annual intensity of wildland fires, a theory has been formerly proposed : it is based on the effect of UV-B radiation on the sensitiveness of plants to fire ignition and propagation. It accounts very satisfactorily for the statistics of annual burned area in the French Mediterranean region. The paper is more particularly devoted to daily variation of the total ozone content of the atmosphere and its possible large daily drop : in the French Mediterranean region, large fires occur in general at the end of such drops, simultaneously in different parts of this region. The UV-B sensitiveness theory based on annual data may predict such large fire occurrence. So, taking into account the daily variation of ozone and solar flux helps to make short-term forecasts of the possibility of large fires in a determined region. |
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