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TEC measurements and modelling over Southern Africa during magnetic storms; a comparative analysis
Authors:John Bosco Habarulema  Lee-Anne McKinnell  Ben DL Opperman
Institution:1. Hermanus Magnetic Observatory, P.O. Box 32, Hermanus 7200, South Africa;2. Department of Physics and Electronics, Rhodes University, Grahamstown 6140, South Africa;1. Atmospheric Research Laboratory, Department of Physics, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi 221005, India;2. School of EEE, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798, Singapore;1. Department of ECE, KLEF, K L University, Vaddeswaram, Guntur Dist, 522502 Andhra Pradesh, India;2. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, KLEF, K L University, Vaddeswaram, Guntur Dist, 522502 Andhra Pradesh, India;1. Institute of Radio Physics and Electronics, University of Calcutta, 92 Acharya Prafulla Chandra Road, Kolkata 700009, India;2. The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste, Italy;3. Institute of Radio Astronomy, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (IRA NASU), Kharkiv, Ukraine;4. Department of Physics of the Earth, Astronomy and Astrophysics I, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas, University Complutense of Madrid (UCM), Ciudad Universitaria, Plaza de Ciencias 1, 28040 Madrid, Spain;5. Dept. of Applied Physics, S V National Institute of Technology, Surat 395007, India;6. Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Brasilia (UnB), 70910-900 Brasília, DF, Brazil;7. Smt. Kasturbai Walchand College, Sangli, India;8. Laboratoire de Physique de l''Atmosphère, Université Felix Houphouet Boigny, 22 BP 582 Abidjan 22, Cote d’Ivoire;9. T/ICT4D Laboratory, International Center for Theoretical Physics, Strada Costiera 11, 34014 Trieste, Italy;1. South African National Space Agency (SANSA) Space Science, 7200 Hermanus, South Africa;2. Department of Physics and Electronics, Rhodes University, 6140 Grahamstown, South Africa;3. Institute of Atmospheric Physics, AS CR, Bocni II 1401, 14131 Prague 4, Czech Republic;4. Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, Maryland, USA;5. Research Institute for Sustainable Humanosphere, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan;6. Catholic University of America, Department of Physics, Washington, DC 20064, USA;7. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Code 674, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
Abstract:This paper presents the results from a study designed to investigate the ability of a newly developed neural network (NN) based model to follow total electron content (TEC) dynamics over the Southern African region. The investigation is carried out by comparing results from the NN model with actual TEC data derived from Global Positioning System (GPS) observations and TEC values predicted by the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2007) model during magnetic storm periods over Southern Africa. The magnetic storm conditions chosen for the study presented in this paper occurred during the periods 16–21 April 2002, 1–6 October 2002, and 28 October–01 November 2003. A total of six South African GPS stations were used for the validation of the two models during these periods. A statistical analysis of the comparison between the actual TEC behaviour and that predicted by the two models is shown. In addition, ionosonde measurements from the South African Louisvale (28.5°S, 21.2°E) station, located close to one of the validation GPS stations used, are also considered during the Halloween storm period of 28–31 October 2003. The generalisation of TEC behaviour by the NN model is demonstrated by producing predicted TEC maps during magnetic storm periods over South Africa. Presented results demonstrate the ability of NNs in predicting TEC variability over South Africa during magnetically disturbed conditions, and highlight areas for improvement.
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