A statistically significant signature of multi-decadal solar activity changes in atmospheric temperatures at three European stations |
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| Authors: | Vladimir Kossobokov Jean-Louis Le Mouël Vincent Courtillot |
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| Institution: | 1. Geomagnetism and Paleomagnetism, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Place Jussieu, Paris, France;2. International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Moscow, Russia;1. Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Circuito de la Investigación s/n. Ciudad Universitaria, 04510 México, D.F., Mexico;2. Instituto de Geofísica, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Circuito de la Investigación s/n. Ciudad Universitaria, 04510 México, D.F., Mexico;1. Indian Institute of Geomagnetism, Kalamboli Highway, New Panvel, Navi Mumbai 410218, Maharashtra, India;2. KSK Geomagnetic Research Laboratory, Hanumanganj, Allahabad 221505, India;3. School of Engineering and Physics, The University of South Pacific, Suva, Fiji;4. Aryabhatta Research Institute of Observational Sciences, Nainital, India;5. Atmospheric Research Laboratory, Department of Physics, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi 221005, India;6. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India;1. Parthenope University of Napoli, Department of Sciences and Technologies, Centro Direzionale, Isola C4, I-80143 Napoli, Italy;2. Università degli Studi di Torino, Dipartimento di Fisica, Via P. Giuria 1, I-10125 Torino, Italy;1. School of Engineering and Physical Science, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, 4811, Australia;2. School of Earth and Environment, the University of Western Australia, Crawley, 6009, WA, Australia;1. College of Mathematics and Information Science, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450011, PR China;2. Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, PR China |
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| Abstract: | We study the effect of solar variability on temperatures recorded in three European stations with the longest gapless series available (Prague, Bologna and Uccle). Following a pattern recognition approach, we partition daily temperature “indices” (minimum, maximum and range) in two separate classes with respect to the level of solar activity (high H vs low L 11 year cycles). Using the two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistics, multiple shuffles of data, and other partitions, we demonstrate that the separation between the probability distribution functions of H and L temperatures is statistically significant and robust. We find that average annual variations for the H and L classes display common and site-specific patterns. For practically all series considered, differences between graphs of annual change for the two classes H and L are large (～1 °C). Solar activity accounts, at least in part, for the multi-decadal variations in temperature observed at these European sites in the past two centuries. |
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