钱塘江涌潮简析与预报

根据１９９１年观测资料，仑前潮位站出现涌潮１８４次，涌潮次数多少与江道地形变迁及上游下泄流量大小有关。涌潮高度在１．２－２．２ｍ之间，与涨潮潮差成正比。涌潮潮时预报方法有传播时间法和隔日滞后时间法。涌潮高度的预报，可根据当天涌潮高度预测后一天涌潮高度，也可根据下游站的涌潮高度预报上游站的涌潮高度。

Analysis and Forecast of Tide Bore on the Qiantang River

According to 1991's statistics, about 184 events of tide bore occurred at the Lunqian Tidal Sta-tion.the statistics show that a relationship exists between the occurrence number of the tide bores and the changesof the channel topography and the discharge from upstream.The heights of the tide bores at the Lunqian TidalStation usually range from 1.2 m to 2.2m,directly proportional to the rising tidal range. The method of propaga-tion time and the method of tide lag can be used for forecasting the occurrence-time of tide bore.As for the tidalheight forecasting,it is possible in practice to forecast the height on the following day according to the currentbeight,or forecast the tidal height at the station on upstream based on the height at the station on downstream.