Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program maps are erroneous |
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Authors: | V G Kossobokov A K Nekrasova |
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Institution: | 1.International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics,Russian Academy of Sciences,Moscow,Russia;2.Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris,Paris,France |
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Abstract: | The March 11, 2011 megathrust on the Pacific coast of the Tohoku Region, Japan, and its consequences once again confirmed
the presence of evident problems in the conventional methodology of risk and earthquake loss evaluation. A systematic analysis
shows that the results of the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP, 1992–1999) contradict the actual occurrence
of strong earthquakes. In particular, since the publication of the GSHAP final results in 1999, all 60 earthquakes with magnitudes
of 7.5 or higher were “surprises” for the GSHAP maps. Moreover, in half of the cases they were “big surprises,” when instead
of the expected “light” or “moderate,” “significant” or even “total” destruction took place. All twelve of the deadliest earthquakes
happened in 2000–2011 (total number of deaths exceeded 700000 people) prove that the GSHAP results, as well as underlying
methodologies, are deeply flawed and, evidently, unacceptable for any critical risk assessments entitled to prevent disasters
caused by earthquakes. |
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