上海市外滩防汛墙结构沉降的预测研究

以上海市外滩防汛墙改建工程为背景，依据外滩防汛墙多年的沉降观察资料，使用黏弹性有限元反分析，对未来防汛墙结构沉降进行预测。整理和分析了从1993年建成之时到2002年的结构沉降观测资料，选取了用于结构沉降反演计算和预测的典型断面和测点，并分别绘制了防汛墙结构沉降随时间发展的曲线。通过二维平面应变有限元正分析，确定了影响结构沉降的主要地层。基于外滩防汛墙二期结构沉降量测数据，采用黏弹性有限元反分析方法对防汛墙结构沉降进行反算，得到主要压缩土层的等效弹性模量，进而预测未来防汛墙结构沉降的发展趋势。其研究成果可为上海市防汛墙建设和技术管理工作提供依据。

Prediction for structural settlement of flood-control wall along the bund in Shanghai

Based on the settlement measurement of flood control wall along the bund in Shanghai, the structural settlement of the flood control wall was predicted with viscoelstic FEM back analysis. In order to calculate and predict the structural settlement, authors arranged and analyzed the measurement data of structural settlement from 1993 during the construction of the flood control wall to 2002, selected the typical section and measurement points, and then drew the curves of settlement with the development of time. With the help of two-dimensional finite element analysis, determined the soil layer that influence the settlement mostly, and then gained the equivalent elastic modulus of this layer with FEM back analysis so as to predict the development of the settlement in the future. The results can be good reference to the construction and technical management of flood control walls in Shanghai.