三江平原气候突变分析

采用累积距平法、J_y参数法和Mann-Kendall法联合检测1955~2000年三江平原气候变化过程中的突变现象,讨论了引发三江平原气候突变的可能原因。分析发现,三江平原年降水量在20世纪60年代发生了减少突变;而三江平原在20世纪70年代和80年代连续两次经历的增温突变,使其气温变化与东北北部平原其它地区明显不同;年日照时数和平均风速的减少突变均发生在20世纪80年代。总体来看,三江平原气候变化在20世纪80年代最明显。

Analysis of Climate Jumps in the Sanjiang Plain

The Sanjiang Plain has gone through 4 periods of large-scale reclamation from 1956 to the present. Over 50% of wetlands in the region had changed into agricultural fields. The underlying surface of the plain has changed tremendously. In this paper, monthly records of 4 climatic factors (air temperature, precipitation, sunshine-hour, and wind speed) for 21 meteorological stations covering the period 1955-2000 were used. The climate jumps in the plain were examined by accumulated departure, J_y parameter and Mann-Kendall methods in the paper. Spring months defined in the paper were March-May, summer was June-September, autumn was October-November and winter was December-February of the next year. The results of seasonal and annual climate jumps showed that a jump of annual precipitation occurred in the 1960s, which had a decrease of 66.5mm; two warming jumps of annual mean temperature happened in the 1970s and the 1980s, which made the plain be different from around areas, and had the increases of 0.4℃and 1.0℃, respectively; the jumps of annual sunshine-hour and mean wind speed of the plain in the 1980s had decreased by 121.3h and 0.5m/s, respectively. The greenhouse effect and large-scale reclamation were probably direct reasons that resulted in climate jumps of the Sanjiang Plain.