Hurricane impact and recovery shoreline change analysis of the Chandeleur Islands,Louisiana, USA: 1855 to 2005 |
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Authors: | Sarah Mary Fearnley Michael D Miner Mark Kulp Carl Bohling Shea Penland |
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Institution: | 1.Pontchartrain Institute for Environmental Sciences,University of New Orleans,New Orleans,USA |
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Abstract: | Results from historical (1855–2005) shoreline change analysis conducted along the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana demonstrate
that tropical cyclone frequency dominates the long-term evolution of this barrier island chain. Island area decreased at a
rate of −0.16 km2/year for the relatively quiescent time period up until 1996, when an increase in tropical cyclone frequency accelerated this
island area reduction to a rate of −1.01 km2/year. More frequent hurricanes also affected shoreline retreat rates, which increased from −11.4 m/year between 1922 and
1996 to −41.9 m/year between 1982 and 2005. The erosional impact caused by the passage of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was unprecedented.
Between 2004 and 2005, the shoreline of the northern islands retreated −201.5 m/year, compared with an average retreat rate
of −38.4 m/year between 1922 and 2004. A linear regression analysis of shoreline change predicts that, as early as 2013, the
backbarrier marsh that serves to stabilize the barrier island chain will be completely destroyed if storm frequency observed
during the past decade persists. If storm frequency decreases to pre-1996 recurrence intervals, the backbarrier marsh is predicted
to remain until 2037. Southern portions of the barrier island chain where backbarrier marsh is now absent behave as ephemeral
islands that are destroyed after storm impacts and reemerge during extended periods of calm weather, a coastal behavior that
will eventually characterize the entire island chain. |
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