西北太平洋热带气旋源地变化特征及与局地海表温度的关系

为提高热带气旋的短期气候预测水平,利用1950-2005年西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)和表层水温(SST)资料,分析了西北太平洋TC生成位置分布的一般气候特征,季节、年际变化特征及其与局地SST之间的关系,同时还探讨了TC强度、路径与TC生成位置之间的关系.结果表明,西北太平洋存在4个TC高频源地,分别是南海中北部偏东洋面、菲律宾以东附近洋面、关岛附近洋面和马绍尔群岛附近洋面,其中关岛附近洋面TC发生数最多,是TC发生的一个主要源地.TC生成位置分布存在显著的季节和年际变化特征,这种变化与局地SST存在密切的关系,局地SST升高,TC生成位置偏西、偏北,反之,则偏东、偏南.同时发现,TC生成位置西北边界与月平均SST的27.5℃等温线具有较好的匹配关系,绝大多数TC都发生在月平均SST≥27.5℃的海区.TC强度、路径与TC生成位置之间存在一定的关系.TC生成位置偏东偏南,其发展强度相对较强,路径偏东偏南,可导致影响我国南部海区和日本东部沿海的TC个数增加;TC生成位置偏西偏北,其发展强度相对较弱,路径偏西北,可导致影响我国东部和北部沿海的TC个数增加.

Variation Features of the Tropical Cyclone Formation Region in NWP and the Relations with Local SST

Based on the relevant reference data of the tropical cyclone (TC) in North-West Pacific (NWP) regions and the sea surface temperature (SST) from 1950 to 2005, the general climatic features of the TC in NWP, the seasonal and inter-annual variations and the relationship with SST were analyzed. The TC intensity, track, the formation regions and their relations were also investigated. In NWP there are four areas where TCs frequently occur, i.e., the northeastern area of South China Sea, eastern Philippine Sea, ...