业务集合预报系统的现状及展望

集合预报系统从原理上讲也可称之为概率预报系统，其最终目的是要提供所有大气变量的完全概率预报，近几年集合预报技术从以前仅考虑初值的不确定性发展为也考虑模式的不确定性，进而发展了多模式－多分析集合预报技术等，阐述了目前业务集合以预报的一些问题，如扰动初值的生成，多模式集合预报，集合预报产品的应用，检验评价等，介绍了近几年集合预报的新进展及该技术的未来发展趋势。

The New Development and the Outlook of the Operational Ensemble Prediction System

The Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) in principle can be called the Probabilistic Prediction System (PPS) of which its ultimate goal is to provide the full probabilistic forecast for all variables. Compared to the beginning of EPS era in 1992 that just considered the uncertainties existed in the initial conditions, one of the most significant progresses made on ensemble techniques during the past few years, is that the model uncertainties have been taken into account, and then is the development of the multi model and multi analysis ensembles.Some problems existed in the operational EPS such as the generation of initial perturbations, multi model ensembles, the application of ensemble products and its verifications are described, and the outlook of this perspective technique is exhibited.