贵州省都匀市滑坡易发性评价研究

都匀市是贵州省城镇滑坡地质灾害多发频发区。文章以都匀市沙包堡镇为研究区，采用栅格单元提取高程、坡度、岩性、水系等9项致灾因子，分别使用都基于数学统计模型的定量分析方法（二元逻辑回归模型、信息量模型）和定性分析方法（层次分析模型）对都匀市研究区滑坡地质灾害易发性进行评价。结果表明:二元逻辑回归模型预测精度与预测效果均为最优，其ROC曲线下面积AUC值为0.873，易发性分区中高易发区和中易发区内预测发生滑坡面积比占95.41%，且最符合野外实地调查验证情况。评价方法与结果可为贵州城镇地区滑坡地质灾害评价和防治提供借鉴。

Evaluation of the landslide vulnerability in Duyun of Guizhou Province

The city of Duyun is located in a frequent geohazard zone with urban landslides in Guizhou Province. The Shabaobao town is chosen as the study area to assess the landslide susceptibility in the paper. Nine factors, including elevation, slope angle, lithology, water system, etc. are extracted by using raster units. Three models are adopted to evaluate the landslide geohazard susceptibility in Duyun. The binary logistic regression model and information value model are quantitative methods, based on mathematical models when the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) is a qualitative model, depending on the statistical model. The results show that the accuracy and effect of the binary logistic model are the best, whose AUC value under the ROC curve can reach 0.873, and the landslide areas ratio accounts for 95.41% within the high and moderate susceptibility zones according to the model prediction, which corresponds mostly to the field investigation result. The assessment method and results can provide a reference for the evaluation and prevention of geological hazards in urban areas of Guizhou Province.