基于不同排放情景的洞庭湖流域水资源演化研究

流域水资源演化与气候变化和人类活动紧密相关,气候变化与人类活动的加剧极大地改变了流域水文循环。通过相似性和独立性分析,从CMIP5公开发布的47个气候模式中筛选出5个代表性气候模式,然后计算未来高、中、低3种不同排放情景下的气温和降水,构造符合研究区产汇流特性的水文模型,计算洞庭湖流域水资源量并分析其演化规律。结果表明:不论温室气体排放水平如何,洞庭湖流域水资源量在未来60a呈现增加态势,汛期水量增加概率加大,而在高排放情景下枯季水资源量表现为减少趋势;未来洞庭湖流域水资源的时程分配将更趋不均匀化,而温室气体的持续排放将使其变化加剧。

Water Resources Evolution in Dongting Lake Basin Based on Different Emission Scenarios

Emission level is expected to be significant impact on climate change, which has a close relationship with local waterresources. Based on different green gas emission scenarios, five relatively independent global climate models were selected from 47CMIP5 models to simulate the future climatic conditions. This paper calculated the future water resources with the data of chosenmodels by downscaling them to local projection and correcting the bias, and then applying to the hydrological model. The resultsshow that the water resources in the Dongting Lake Basin are likely to grow in the future and distributed more unevenly. In 3scenarios, water resources increase during flood season and decrease during dry season, and the total amount grow prominently.More green gas emission, more severe the uneven distribution.