新疆成组中强地震活动前后地震活动图像的时空演化特征

用“震源触发-系统响应”孕震模式，分析讨论了新疆1996-1998年成组强震活动前后地震活动图像的时空演化特征，由此定义了“诱发信号震”，进而分析研究了诱发信号震与后续主震的关系，结果表明，强震发生后触发（或引起）的中等地震活动区及边缘很可能是未来强震发生的地点；强震或其强余震发生当天或稍后1天内发生的信号震具有预报意义，信号震发生后，其周围200km范围内3年发生强震的可能性较大，其震级可能比信号震的震级高0.5-2.0，最后对成组强震活动的机理进行了分析和讨论。

THE TIME-SPACE EVOLUTION OF SEISMICITY PATTERN BEFORE AND AFTER GROUP MEDIUM-STRONG EARTHQUAKES IN XINJIANG REGION

Based on the “focus trigger-system response” seismogenic model,the time-space evolution characters of seismicity pattern before and after group strong earthquakes in Xinjiang region from 1996 to 1998 are discussed and analyzed. The signal inducing earthquake is defined. The relation between the signal inducing earthquakes and succeeding strong earthquakes is studied. The results show that the medium earthquake activity area that is triggered by strong earthquake and its border may be a dangerous region of future strong earthquake.The signal inducing earthquake within two days after the strong earthquake or its strong aftershock has forecast significance. There is a very fair possibility of strong earthquake with magnitude larger than that of the signal earthquake by 0.5～2 to occur in range of 200 km around the signal event within 3 years after the event.Finally a preliminary discussion on the mechanism of group strong earthquake activity is made.