A Study of Non-Gravitational Effects of Comet C/1995 O1 HALE–BOPP

The role of non-gravitational forces in the evolution of orbitalmotion of C/1995 O1 (Hale–Bopp) has been investigated. Inorbital calculations the observational material covering theperiod from April 1993 up to August 2001 was used. To model thenon-gravitational acceleration, observed and theoretical profilesof the H₂O production rates were employed. A set of forcedprecession models of a rotating cometary nucleus consistent withthe observed spin axis orientation was fitted to positionalobservations. The non-gravitational models allowed us to constrainthe mass and radius of the comet. The orbitalevolution of Comet Hale–Bopp was investigated over ±400 k yusing two sets of randomly varied orbital elements wellrepresenting all positional observations in the pure gravitationalcase, as well as in the non-gravitational case. The calculationsshowed that the comet's motion is predictable only over an interval ofa few orbital periods. The statistical conclusions changesignificantly when non-gravitational effects are included in the analysis.