黄河长江珠江三角洲近30年海平面上升趋势及2030年上升量预测

黄河、长江和珠江三角洲由于地面沉降等原因,过去30年的相对海平面上升率远大于全球或全国海平面上升率（约1.5mm/a）。下一世纪,根据IPCC的最佳估计,至2030年全球海平面将上升18cm。我国三大三角洲,根据目前地面沉降情况、发展趋势及政府的控制措施,估计2030年相对海平面上升量老黄河三角洲（天津地区）为60cm,现代黄河三角洲（山东省东营市地区）为30—35cm,长江三角洲（上海地区）为30—40cm,珠江三角洲20—25cm,以上估计数可供沿海有关决策部门制订今后长远发展规划及拟订政策时的参考。

RELATIVER SEA LEVEL RISE IN HUANGHE, CHANGJIANG AND ZHUJIANG (YELLOW, YANGTZE AND PEARL RIVER)DELTA OVER THE LAST 30 YEARS AND PREDICATION FOR THE NEXT 40 YEARS(2030)

In Huanghe Changjiang and Zhujiang(Yellow,Yangtze and Pearl River)Delta,China,owing to tectonic sinking,sediment compaction and man-induced land subsidence (chiefly due to over-pumping of ground water) ,relative sea level rise over the last 30 years is much greater than mean rate of sea level rise of the world and China. In Tianjin coast,rate of relative sea level rise is more than 10 times that of the global and China's mean rate. For the next century,according to the best estimate of IPCC,global sea level rise in 2030 will be 18cm . In the three Chinese deltas, considering local land subsidence and the current and projected mitigation measures of the local authorities, it is estimated that relative sea level rise in 2030 will be 60cm,in Old Huanghe Delta (Tianjin area), 30 - 40cm in Changjiang Delta (Shanghai area)and 20-25cm in Zhujiang Delta. It is hoped that these estimates of relative sea level rise in 2030 may be useful to policy makers in formulating future coastal management plans and development policies.