Aggregation Methodology for the Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal |
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Authors: | John H Schuenemeyer Donald L Gautier |
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Institution: | (1) Faculty of Geology Leninskie Gory, Lomonosov Moscow State University, 119992 Moskva, Moscow, Russia |
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Abstract: | This paper presents a methodology that intends to aggregate the results of a recent assessment of undiscovered conventional
oil and gas resources of the Arctic by the U.S. Geological Survey. The assessment occurred in 48 geologically defined regions
called assessment units. The methodology includes using assessor specified pair-wise correlations as the basis to construct
a correlation matrix. Sampling from this matrix generates more realistic uncertainty estimates of aggregated resources than
if assumptions of total independence or total dependence are made. The latter two assumptions result in overly narrow or overly
broad estimates. Aggregation results for resources in regions north of the Arctic Circle are presented. |
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