Indian summer monsoon and El Nino |
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Authors: | D A Mooley B Parthasarathy |
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Institution: | (1) Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, 411 005 Pune, India |
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Abstract: | The associations between strong to moderate El Nino events and the all-India and subdivisional summer monsoon rainfall is
examined for the period 1871 to 1978. The significance of the association is assessed by applying the Chi-square test to the
contingency table.
The analysis indicates that during 22 El Nino years the Indian monsoon rainfall was mostly below normal over most parts of
the country. However, the association between El Nino and deficient rainfall or drought is statistically significant over
the subdivisions west of longitude 80°E and north of 12°N. During the five strong El Nino years—1877, 1899, 1911, 1918, and
1972—many areas of India suffered large rainfall deficiencies and severe droughts. There are four moderate El Nino years—1887,
1914, 1953, and 1976—when the suffering was marginal.
The relationship between El Nino and the Indian monsoon rainfall is expected to be useful in forecasting large-scale anomalies
in the monsoon over India. |
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Keywords: | Indian summer monsoon Droughts/floods El Nino Contingency techniques |
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