香港降水的预测研究

利用香港１９５４～１９９０年月降水资料，通过相关和逐步回归，求出外界因子场的主分量与香港降水的关系，从而实现对香港年、前后汛期和春夏秋冬四季的降水进行逐步回归预报。结果表明，香港各时跨降不的逐步回归预报效果很好，复相关和系数（除对后汛期降水的预报外）在０．８０以上，预报与实况跨平符号相关百分率平均达８６．２％拟合和试报效果较好；而影响香港降水的因子复杂多样，主要受高度场、海温场和环流指数的影响。

A STUDY ON THE PREDICTION OF HONG KONG RAINFALL

Based on the data of Hong Kong monthly precipitation (1954-1990), the relationship between the principal component of outer factor fields and that of Hong Kong precipitation field was conducted with correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis. It shows that the prediction equations of 7 time intervals are ideal, their multiple correlation coefficients are over 0.80 (except prediction on second flood season), the mean percentage of departure symbol correlation between prediction and reality is 86.2%. It also reveals that Hong Kong rainfall is affected by various complex factor fields namely geopotential height field, sea surface temperature field and circulation index.