抗震设防决策中的模糊信息处理

抗震设防决策过程中涉及到许多对整个分析过程都具有重要意义的模糊信息 ,本文提出一种结合模糊信息进行地震危险性概率分析与抗震设防决策的方法 ,介绍了用模糊集模拟模糊信息的原理 ,以及进一步处理模糊信息的区间分析顶点法。作为一例 ,这些方法结合基于泊松分布的地震烈度发生概率模型 ,应用于南京市区未来 5 0年的地震危险性与抗震设防效益分析 ,提供模糊的结论供设防决策参考。

FUZZY INFORMATION PROCESSING IN EARTHQUAKE RESISTANCE AND PROTECTION DECISION MAKING

Earthquake resistance and protection decision making involves a lot of fuzzy information that is very important to the whole analysis. In this paper a methodology to incorporate the fuzzy information into a probabilistic approach to seismic risk analysis and the decision making is proposed, a principle to model the fuzzy information by fuzzy set is introduced, and a vertex method for interval analysis to further process the fuzzy information is discussed. As an example, these methods, along with occurrence probability model of earthquake with different intensities based on the Poisson distribution, are used in analysis of seismic risk in Nanjing City. then a fuzzy conclusion is presented as a reference for decision making about earthquake resistance and protectionpolicy.