耕地安全时空变化及其驱动力研究——以江西省鹰潭市为例

耕地安全是保障我国持续增长的人口能健康生存的关键。掌握耕地安全的时空变化特征及其驱动力对维护耕地安全意义很大。本研究考虑耕地数量、质量和生态安全的平衡与稳定性,构建了耕地安全评价指标体系,采用改进的TOPSIS方法,对江西省鹰潭市1995-2015年耕地安全状况进行评价,并分析其时空变化特征。利用空间回归模型研究耕地安全时空变化的驱动力,可消除空间自相关的影响。研究结果表明:1995-2005年鹰潭市耕地安全呈快速下降趋势,2005-2015年耕地安全呈缓慢上升趋势。非常危险的耕地主要分布在月湖区,而安全状态的耕地主要位于南部山地区域,一般危险的耕地范围随城市发展方向往西部扩张延伸。驱动因素中,社会经济因素和政策因素对耕地安全变化有显著影响。根据耕地安全的时空变化规律和耕地安全的驱动因素,可采取相应措施提高耕地安全水平。

Spatiotemporal Variation of Cultivated Land Security and Its Drivers:The Case of Yingtan City,China

Maintaining an adequate security level of cultivated land is essential for the healthy and sustainable survival of China’s large and growing population.We constructed a cultivated land security evaluation index system,combined with an improved TOPSIS method by taking into account the balance and stability of quantitative,qualitative,and ecological security.We applied this improved method to an evaluation of the state of cultivated land security and analyzed its spatiotemporal variation in Yingtan City(Jiangxi Province,China)from 1995 to 2015.The drivers of the changes in cultivated land security were investigated via a spatial regression model,which can eliminate the effect of spatial autocorrelation.The results showed that cultivated land security decreased rapidly from 1995 to 2005,although it tended to rise slowly in the subsequent period from 2005 to 2015.Areas deemed to be in a highly dangerous state were mainly distributed in the Yuehu District,while those that were secure appeared primarily in the southern mountainous area,with the area in a generally dangerous state extending to the west in the same direction as urban development.Among the examined drivers,social-economic factors and policy factors significantly influenced the cultivated land security.Our work suggests that government managers should take appropriate measures to improve cultivated land security according to its spatiotemporal variations and the underpinning drivers in this region.