CMIP5模式对青藏高原地表温度的模拟与预估

利用1980~2005年英国东英吉利亚大学的 CRU全球陆面月平均地面数据集资料，对历史数据进行集合平均，结合泰勒诊断，开展青藏高原地区地表温度及其变化趋势的统计分析与模式模拟，并通过CRU观测资料和模式的历史资料集合平均得到年平均地表温度变化趋势，从而对高原未来的地表温度进行预估。结果表明：CMIP5中大多数模式对高原地区的年平均地表温度的模拟效果较好，但会受到季节差异的影响；多模式集合平均的模拟能力总体比单个模式模拟的性能更优，与观测场的数据更加接近；青藏高原未来的增温趋势与外辐射强迫的强度呈正相关，高原地区对高浓度排放情景下的增温效应比中低浓度更加剧烈，并且升温值在21世纪末极有可能突破6.5℃。

CMIP5 Model for Surface Temperature Simulation and Estimation in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Region

Based on the CRU monthly mean global land surface data set of the University of East Anglia from 1980 to 2005, and combined with the Taylor diagnosis, the observation and model simulation of the surface temperature and its variation trend over the Tibetan Plateau were carried out. The annual average temperature variation trend is obtained from the historical data set of CRU observation data and the model, so as to predict the future surface temperature of the Plateau. The results show that most of the CMIP5 models have a good simulation effect on the annual mean temperature over the Plateau, but they are affected by seasonal differences. In addition, the average simulation ability of multi-model set is generally better than that of single model simulation, and it is closer to the data of observation field. The warming trend of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the future is positively correlated with the intensity of external radiation forcing. The warming effect of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under the scenario of high emission is more intense than that under the scenario of medium and low emission, and the warming value is likely to exceed 6.5℃ by the end of the 21st century.