Masses for the Local Group and the Milky Way

We use the very large Millennium Simulation of the concordance Λ cold dark matter cosmogony to calibrate the bias and error distribution of Timing Argument estimators of the masses of the Local Group and of the Milky Way. From a large number of isolated spiral–spiral pairs similar to the Milky Way/Andromeda system, we find the interquartile range of the ratio of timing mass to true mass to be a factor of 1.8, while the 5 and 95 per cent points of the distribution of this ratio are separated by a factor of 5.7. Here, we define true mass as the sum of the 'virial' masses, M ₂₀₀, of the two dominant galaxies. For present best values of the distance and approach velocity of Andromeda, this leads to a median likelihood estimate of the true mass of the Local Group of  5.27 × 10¹² M_⊙  or  log  M _LG/M_⊙= 12.72  , with an interquartile range of [12.58, 12.83] and a 5–95 per cent range of [12.26, 13.01]. Thus, a 95 per cent lower confidence limit on the true mass of the Local Group is  1.81 × 10¹² M_⊙  . A timing estimate of the Milky Way's mass based on the large recession velocity observed for the distant satellite Leo I works equally well, although with larger systematic uncertainties. It gives an estimated virial mass for the Milky Way of  2.43 × 10¹² M_⊙  with a 95 per cent lower confidence limit of  0.80 × 10¹² M_⊙  .