长期天气预告的物理基础

“云掩中秋月,雨打上元灯。”“重阳无雨一冬晴。”这两句天气俚谚,很明显的告诉我们,长期天气预告并不是十分时髦的问题。千年前的农民和诗人对於这个问题早就有了深切的注意和相当的认识了。他们凭著经验的提示,诗兴的焕发,作了许多关於这类的俚谚,为的是要诱掖後人们注意天气的前後相互关系。这些天气俚谚是否能够兑现呢?这个问题恐怕是许多人要问的。严格的讲,这类的俚谚大都没有兑现的可能,他们的普遍流行,只不过是表示一个农业国家的

Phyaical Basis of Long-range Forecasting: A Critical Study

The physical basis of long-range forecasting has been examined in this paper and reasons have been given for and against the employment of a certain method in long-range forecasting. The methods examined are (a) weather cycles and periodicity; (b) statistical method based on the variation of solar radiation and this icnludes the variation of the number of sunspot and the variation of solar constant; and (c) statistical method based on centres of action. Great emphasis has been laid on the relation between t...