1982-2016年北极开阔水域变化

近30年来，北极海冰覆盖范围大幅缩减，开阔水域也相应地发生显著变化。本文利用美国雪冰中心的海冰密集度产品以及美国海洋和大气科学管理局的海水表面温度数据产品，分析了1982-2016年北极开阔水域面积以及开阔水域季节长度的年际变化，并进一步探讨了海水表面温度对开阔水域时空变化的影响。结果表明北极开阔水域面积平均每年增加55.89×103 km2，海冰消退时间以平均0.77 d/a的速度在提前，海冰出现时间以平均0.82 d/a的速度在延迟，导致开阔水域季节长度以平均1.59 d/a的速度在增加。2016年达到了有遥感观测资料以来开阔水域面积和开阔水域季节长度的最大值，分别为13.52×106 km2和182 d。9个海区的开阔水域变化特征有一定的差异，对开阔水域变化贡献最大的有北冰洋核心区、喀拉海和巴伦支海。海水表面温度对开阔水域的变化有着重要影响，且影响的程度与纬度相关，即高纬度地区的海水表面温度对开阔水域的影响高于低纬度地区。

Open water variability in the North Pole from 1982 to 2016

For nearly thirty years, the Arctic sea ice coverage shrink sharply, with significant changes in open water too. In this thesis, we used the sea ice concentration products from the National Snow and Ice Center and sea surface temperature data from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to analyze the variability of open water area and the length of the open water season from 1982 to 2016. We further analyzed the sea surface temperature''s influence on the spatio-temporal variability of open water. The results indicated that the open water area of the North Pole increased at a rate of 55.89×10³ km²/a, sea ice retreat time in advance at a rate of 0.77 days per year on average, sea ice advance time delayed at a rate of 0.82 days per year on average, causing the length of the open water season increased at a rate of 1.59 days per year. In 2016, open water and the length of open water season reached maximum since there were remote sensing observation data, the value were 13.52×10⁶ km² and 182 days respectively. Nine partitions have different change about the variability of open water, it was found that the seas which affected the open water most were Arctic Ocean core region, Kara and Barents seas. Sea surface temperature has an important influence on the change of open water, its influence extent has a close relationship with the degree of latitude. For high latitude, sea surface temperature''s influence for open water was larger than low latitude.