区域PRED的系统分析与决策制定方法

人口问题、资源问题、环境问题和发展问题是当今世界人地关系的四大焦点问题,它们相互联系、相互影响,因而解决它们的关键在于实现PRED四者的协调发展.从定义“区域PRED系统”这一概念入手,进而运用系统科学的分析方法,可以较为深入地探讨区域PRED协调发展的相互作用与内部信息联系机制.在此基础上,通过数学分析、模型仿真和多目标决策评判等方法的逐步深入,可以构筑起区域PRED协调发展的辅助决策支持系统的运行框架.

THE METHOD FOR REGIONAL PRED SYSTEM-ANALYSIS AND DECISION MAKING

Population,Resource,Environment and Development (PRED)are four foci of the human environment relationship. There are complex relationships and feedback among them.Therefore,the key to solving these problems is to make PRED develop coordinately and harmoniously. By defining the concept of "Regional、 FRED System" and applying the systemanalysis method,we can explore the mechanism of the interplay and feedback of the PRED system. On the basis of this,the framework of the subordinate decision-making support system (SDSS) for the regionol PRED coordinated development can be constructed,including the processes of quantitative analysis,modelling,simulation,and multi-objective decision evaluation.