Seismic sample areas defined from incomplete catalogues: an application to the Italian territory

The comprehensive understanding of earthquake source-physics under real conditions requires the study not of single faults as separate entities but rather of a seismically active region as a whole, accounting for the interaction among different structures. We define “seismic sample area” the most convenient region to be used as a natural laboratory for the study of seismic source physics. This coincides with the region where the average large magnitude seismicity is the highest. To this end, time and space future distributions of large earthquakes are to be estimated. Using catalog seismicity as an input, the rate of occurrence is not constant but appears generally biased by incompleteness in some parts of the catalog and possible nonstationarities in seismic activity. We present a statistical procedure which is capable, under a few mild assumptions, of both detecting nonstationarities in seismicity and finding the incomplete parts of a seismic catalog. The procedure is based on Kolmogorov-Smirnov nonparametric statistics, and can be applied without a priori assuming the parent distribution of the events. The efficiency of this procedure allows the analysis of small data sets. An application to the Italian territory is presented, using the most recent version of the ENEL seismic catalog. Seismic activity takes place in six well defined areas but only five of them have a number of events sufficient for analysis. Barring a few exceptions, seismicity is found stationary throughout the whole catalog span 1000–1980. The eastern Alps region stands out as the best “sample area”, with the highest average probability of event occurrence per time and area unit. Final objective of this characterization is to stimulate a program of intensified research.