Calibrating cellular automata based on landscape metrics by using genetic algorithms

Landscape metrics have been widely used to characterize geographical patterns which are important for many geographical and ecological analyses. Cellular automata (CA) are attractive for simulating settlement development, landscape evolution, urban dynamics, and land-use changes. Although various methods have been developed to calibrate CA, landscape metrics have not been explicitly used to ensure the simulated pattern best fitted to the actual one. This article presents a pattern-calibrated method which is based on a number of landscape metrics for implementing CA by using genetic algorithms (GAs). A Pattern-calibrated GA–CA is proposed by incorporating percentage of landscape (PLAND), patch metric (LPI), and landscape division (D) into the fitness function of GA. The sensitivity analysis can allow the users to explore various combinations of weights and examine their effects. The comparison between Logistic- CA, Cell-calibrated GA–CA, and Pattern-calibrated GA–CA indicates that the last method can yield the best results for calibrating CA, according to both the training and validation data. For example, Logistic-CA has the average simulation error of 27.7%, but Pattern-calibrated GA–CA (the proposed method) can reduce this error to only 7.2% by using the training data set in 2003. The validation is further carried out by using new validation data in 2008 and additional landscape metrics (e.g., Landscape shape index, edge density, and aggregation index) which have not been incorporated for calibrating CA models. The comparison shows that this pattern-calibrated CA has better performance than the other two conventional models.