湖北省黄石市暴雪预报系统设计与实现

利用黄石市1980年1月至2010年12月的暴雪个例资料和NCEP的再分析资料,运用神经网络方法建立暴雪预报的人工神经网络预报模型,在预报模型和MICAPS 3.0系统的基础上,选取VB语言开发环境和VFP数据库,在Windows操作系统上建立了黄石市暴雪预报系统,实现了黄石市暴雪天气的客观预报功能。该系统的研发对提高暴雪预报准确率具有很现实的指导意义,同时其研发方法可以应用到其他类型灾害性天气预报系统的研发,在地市级气象台站具有广阔的推广空间和应用前景。系统挂靠黄石市气象台的预报业务平台,自投入业务运行以来,运行稳定,效果良好。

Design and Implementation of a Snowstorm Forecast System

Based on the snowstorm data in Huangshi from January 1980 to December 2010 and NCEP reanalysis data, the artificial neural network forecast model of snowstorm is established by using neural network method. On the basis of the forecast model and the MICAPS 3.0 system, by means of the VB language and VFP database, the snowstorm forecast system of Huangshi is devised under Windows operating system, achieving the objective forecasting of snowstorm weather in Huangshi. The establishment of this system has a practical significance to the improvement of snowstorm forecast accuracy. The system operates on the forecast platform of the Huangshi Meteorological Office; since putting into operation, it has performed satisfactorily.