SCMOC温度精细化指导预报在陕西区域的质量检验

利用2012年陕西区域99站共366天北京时间08:00和20:00起报的SCMOC温度精细化指导预报与实况资料的比较,检验分析了定时温度、日最高气温和日最低气温的预报质量。结果表明:陕西区域SCMOC温度精细化指导预报08:00起报的准确率高于20:00起报的,且预报准确率有明显的季节变化,夏、秋季节较高,冬、春季节较低,日最高(低)气温的预报准确率与预报时效成反比。地形高度影响温度预报准确率,二者之间的相关系数通过了显著性检验。08:00起报的48h内逐3h气温多出现负误差,20:00起报的多出现正误差。08:00起报的日最高气温和20:00起报的日最高(低)气温多出现负误差,08:00起报的日最低气温多出现正误差。从对典型天气过程的温度预报质量检验来看,强冷空气影响下的降温天气过程的温度预报难度较大,预报准确率较其他天气类型偏低一些。

Quality Test of Refined Guidance SCMOC Temperature Prediction in Shaanxi Province

According the comparison between observation temperature from stations and SCMOC refined guidance temperature forecast starting at 00:00GMT and 12:00GMT for 366 days in 2012 for 99 stations over Shaanxi, the characteristics of prediction errors of three hourly predicted temperature, daily maximum, and minimum temperature are annalyzed. The result shows: the accuracy of the predicted temperature starting at 00:00GMT is better than that starting at 12:00GMT, and there is obvious seasonal variation, higher in summer and autumn, lower in winter and spring. The accuracy of daily maximum and minimum temperature prediction has negative correlation with lead time, and the topographic height influences the accuracy of temperature prediction remarkably. The three hourly predicted temperature starting at 00:00GMT for 48 hours has greater negative errors, but that starting at 12:00GMT has greater positive errors. The predicted daily maximum and minimum temperatures are often smaller than observations, except the predicted minimum temperature starting at 00:00GMT. The accuracy of temperature prediction is lower in obvious temperature drop weather, comparing with other weather, according to the quality test of temperature prediction in different weather conditions.