1949-2006年西北太平洋热带气旋活动的气候分析

应用1949～2006年的《台风年鉴》资料对出现在西北太平洋的热带气旋(TC)的活动规律进行了气候再分析,按照新的TC分类方法探讨了近58a来西北太平洋TC的时空分布特征。分析结果表明,西北太平洋TC的时空分布差异显著,其发生源地可划分为4个,发生时间和位置的季节性变化明显,每年登陆我国TC的个数与西北太平洋TC数量的增减保持一致,TC全年集中发生在7～10月期间,TC的年代际变化表现为上世纪80～90年代发生的频数比60～70年代显著减小。小波分析显示TC活动3～6 a与12～14a的变化周期显著。

Climatic analysis for TC in the Northwest Pacific from 1949 to 2006

Based on the tropical cyclone yearbooks of the western North Pacific from 1949 to 2006, the climatic characteristic of tropical cyclone in western North Pacific is reanalyzed and the spatio-temporal distribution for 58 years is discussed according to the new classify method of tropical cyclone in the Northwest Pacific. The results show that the spatio-temporal distribution difference of tropical cyclone in the Northwest Pacific is obvious. There are 4 sources for the tropical cyclone formation, tropical cyclone activities is different in season and position. Tropical cyclone occurs frequently from July to October every year. The number of the tropical cyclone landing in China every year is consistent with the TC number formed in the Northwest Pacific. In the annual scale, the tropical cyclone is less evidently from 1980 to 1990 than from 1960 to 1970. The wavelet analysis shows that the period of tropical cyclone occurring is obviously variational in 3-6 years and 12-14years.