A comparison of different methods for speleothem age modelling |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Institute for Geosciences, University of Mainz, Johann-Joachim-Becher-Weg 21, 55128 Mainz, Germany;2. CENIEH, Paseo Sierra de Atapuerca s/n, 09002-Burgos, Spain;3. Bristol Isotope Group, School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, BS8 1SS Bristol, United Kingdom;4. School of Earth Sciences, The University of Melbourne, VIC 3010, Australia;5. Oxford Radiocarbon Accelerator Unit, University of Oxford, Dyson Perrins Building, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK;1. Senckenberg Research Institute and Natural History Museum, Senckenberganlage 25, D-60325 Frankfurt, Germany;2. Institute of Earth Sciences, Heidelberg University, Im Neuenheimer Feld 234-236, D-69120 Heidelberg, Germany;3. Department of Geography, University of Portsmouth, Buckingham Building, Lion Terrace, Portsmouth, PO1 3HE, United Kingdom;4. Scottish Universities Environmental Research Centre (SUERC), University of Glasgow, Rankine Avenue, Scottish Enterprise Technology Park, East Kilbride, G75 0QF, United Kingdom;5. Research Laboratory for Archaeology and the History of Art, University of Oxford, 1-2 South Parks Rd, Oxford, OX1 3TG, United Kingdom;6. Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section 4.3 Chemistry and Physics of Earth Materials, Telegrafenberg, D-14773 Potsdam, Germany;7. Centre for Quaternary Research, Department of Geography, Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham, Surrey, TW20 0EX, United Kingdom;8. National Research Council of Italy (CNR)-Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources (IGG), Unit of Pavia, Via A. Ferrata 1, 27100 Pavia, Italy;9. Department of Geology, Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin, Dublin 2, Ireland;10. Institute of Botany, University of Hohenheim, Garbenstraße 30, D-70593 Stuttgart, Germany;11. Center for Natural History, University of Hamburg, Bundesstraße 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany;12. Institute for Geology, University of Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany;13. Parlamentsstraße 32, D-60385 Frankfurt, Germany;14. Department of Geology, University of Patras, GR-26504 Rio-Patras, Greece;15. Environmental Change Research Centre, Department of Geography, University College London, Pearson Building, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom;p. Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, University of Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany;1. School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, B15 2TT Birmingham, United Kingdom;2. Department of Environmental Sciences, Jožef Stefan Institute, Jamova 39, SI-1000, Ljubljana, Slovenia;3. Faculty of Environmental Sciences, University of Nova Gorica, Vipavska 13, 5000 Nova Gorica, Slovenia;4. Department of Soil Science, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Zagreb, Svetošimunska 25, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia;5. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, 10964 Palisades (NY), USA;6. Department of Geoscience, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1215 West Dayton St., Madison 53706 (WI), USA;7. Department of Earth Sciences, University of Minnesota, 55455 Minneapolis (MN), USA;8. Institute of Global Environmental Changes, Xian Jiaotong University, 710049 Xian, China;1. Institute of Geosciences, University of Mainz, Johann-Joachim-Becher-Weg 21, D-55128 Mainz, Germany;2. Climate Geochemistry Department, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Hahn-Meitner-Weg 1, D-55128 Mainz, Germany;3. Institute of Geology, Mineralogy and Geophysics, Ruhr-University Bochum, Universitätsstraße 150, D-44801 Bochum, Germany;4. Institute of Environmental Physics, Ruprecht-Karls-University Heidelberg, Im Neuenheimer Feld 229, D-69120 Heidelberg, Germany;5. Department of Geospeleology and Paleontology, “Emil Racovitǎ” Institute of Speleology, Strada Frumoasǎ 31, R-010986 Bucharest 12, Romania;6. Centro Nacional de Investigación sobre la Evolución Humana, CENIEH, Paseo Sierra de Atapuerca 3, 09002 Burgos, Spain;1. Department of Earth Sciences, ETH Zurich, Sonneggstrasse 5, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland;2. Department of Earth Sciences, Durham University, Durham DH1 3LE, UK;3. Department of Earth Sciences, Cambridge University, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EQ, UK;4. Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Heidelberg, Im Neuenheimer Feld 229, 69129 Heidelberg, Germany;5. Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24-25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany;6. Department of Physics, Laboratory of Ion Beam Physics, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland;7. Scottish Universities Environmental Research Centre (SUERC), East Kilbride, UK;8. Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research,Transdisciplinary Concepts & Methods, Telegraphenberg A 31, 14473 Potsdam, Germany;9. Department of Physics,Universität Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24-25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany;10. Dept. of Anthropology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87106, USA;11. Dept. of Anthropology, Institute for Energy and the Environment, The Pennsylvania State University, PA 16802, USA;12. Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131, USA;1. Institute of Geological Sciences, University of Bern, Switzerland;2. Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Switzerland;3. School of Environmental and Life Sciences, University of Newcastle, Australia;4. Institute of Global Environmental Change, Xi''an Jiaotong University, Xi''an, Shaanxi, China;5. Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, USA;6. Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, Istanbul Technical University, Turkey;7. Department of Archaeology, School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, United Kingdom;1. Dept. of Geology, University of Oviedo, Oviedo, Spain;2. Instituto Pirenaico de Ecologia, CSIC, Zaragoza, Spain;3. Dept. of Geology, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain;4. University of Minnesota, Dept. of Earth Sciences, Minneapolis, USA;5. Xian Jiaotong University, Institute of Global Environmental Change, Xian, China |
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| Abstract: | Speleothems, such as stalagmites and flowstones, can be dated with unprecedented precision in the range of the last 650,000 a by the 230Th/U-method, which is considered as one of their major advantages as climate archives. However, a standard approach for the construction of speleothem age models and the estimation of the corresponding uncertainty has not been established yet.Here we apply five age modelling approaches (StalAge, OxCal, a finite positive growth rate model and two spline-based models) to a synthetic speleothem growth model and two natural samples. All data sets contain problematic features such as outliers, age inversions, large and abrupt changes in growth rate as well as hiatuses.For data sets constrained by a large number of ages and not including problematic sections, all age models provide similar results. In case of problematic sections, the algorithms provide significantly different age models and uncertainty ranges.StalAge, OxCal and the finite positive growth rate model are, in general, more flexible since they are capable of modelling hiatuses and account for problematic sections by increased uncertainty. The spline-based age models, in contrast, reveal problems in modelling problematic sections.Application to the synthetic data set allows testing the performance of the algorithms because the ‘true’ age model is available and can be compared with the age models. OxCal and StalAge generally show a good performance for this example, even if they are inaccurate for a short section in the area of a hiatus. The two spline-based models and the finite positive growth rate model show larger inaccurately modelled sections. |
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