Assessing uncertainties in urban drainage models |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Civil Engineering, Centre for Water Sensitive Cities, Monash University, Victoria 3800, Australia;2. Unit of Environmental Engineering - University Innsbruck, Technikerstrasse 13;6020 Innsbruck, Austria;3. Facoltà di Ingegneria ed Architettura, Università di Enna “Kore”, Cittadella Universitaria, 94100 Enna, Italy;4. Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Ambientale ed Aerospaziale, Università di Palermo, Viale delle Scienze, 90128 Palermo, Italy;5. Laboratory for Water Resources Management, Muenster University of Applied Sciences, Department of Civil Engineering, Corrensstr. 25, FRG 48149 Muenster, Germany;6. Université de Lyon, INSA Lyon, Laboratoire de Génie Civil et d’Ingénierie Environnementale, 34 avenue des Arts, F-69621 Villeurbanne cedex, France;7. Pennine Water Group, The University of Bradford, Richmond Road, Bradford BD7 1DP, United Kingdom;1. University of Paris-Saclay, INRAE, UR HYCAR, Jouy-en-Josas, Antony, France;2. INRAE, UR RiverLy, Lyon, France;1. Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5048, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands;2. Witteveen+Bos, P.O. Box 233, 7400 AE Deventer, The Netherlands;3. Graz University of Technology, Stremayrgasse 10/I, 8010 Graz, Austria;4. Partners4UrbanWater, Javastraat 104A, 6524 MJ Nijmegen, The Netherlands;5. Deltares, P.O. Box 177, 2600 MH Delft, The Netherlands;1. School of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan 44919, Republic of Korea;2. HECOREA. INC, 602, Samsung IT Valley, 27, Digital-ro 33-gil, Guro-gu, Seoul Republic of Korea;3. Department of Civil and Environmental Systems Engineering, Dongguk University-Seoul, Seoul 100-715, Republic of Korea;4. Environmental Microbial and Food Safety Laboratory, USDA-ARS, Beltsville, MD, USA;5. Climate Application Department, APEC Climate Center, Busan 48058, Republic of Korea;1. CNR - National Research Council of Italy, Institute for High Performance Computing and Networking (ICAR), Via P. Bucci, 41C, 87036 Rende (CS), Italy;2. Department of Civil Engineering of the University of Calabria, Via P. Bucci, 87036 Rende (CS), Italy;1. Department of Biological System Engineering, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, USA;2. Water Resources Engineer, Gannett Fleming, Inc., Fairfax, VA, USA;3. Department of Biological System Engineering, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Hampton Roads Agricultural Research and Extension Center, Virginia Beach, VA, USA;1. Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing Climate Change Response Research and Education Center, Beijing 100044, China;2. Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Key Laboratory of Urban Stormwater System and Water Environment, Ministry of Education, Beijing 100044, China |
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| Abstract: | The current state of knowledge regarding uncertainties in urban drainage models is poor. This is in part due to the lack of clarity in the way model uncertainty analyses are conducted and how the results are presented and used. There is a need for a common terminology and a conceptual framework for describing and estimating uncertainties in urban drainage models. Practical tools for the assessment of model uncertainties for a range of urban drainage models are also required to be developed. This paper, produced by the International Working Group on Data and Models, which works under the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, is a contribution to the development of a harmonised framework for defining and assessing uncertainties in the field of urban drainage modelling. The sources of uncertainties in urban drainage models and their links are initially mapped out. This is followed by an evaluation of each source, including a discussion of its definition and an evaluation of methods that could be used to assess its overall importance. Finally, an approach for a Global Assessment of Modelling Uncertainties (GAMU) is proposed, which presents a new framework for mapping and quantifying sources of uncertainty in urban drainage models. |
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