基于生态位理论的河北平原地下水开采潜力评价

传统的地下水开采潜力评价方法主要采用单个指标进行评价，难以全面科学地反映地下水开采潜力的影响要素。地下水的空间分布、动态变化受到经济社会发展、开采技术等多个因素影响，也与自身调节有关，这与生态位理论的观念吻合。文中提出地下水生态位的定义、计算公式；对河北平原9个主要城市进行地下水生态位计算、聚类分析，分析其地下水开采潜力；并与传统方法的评价结果进行对比。结果表明：除保定、秦皇岛和廊坊外，其他城市的两种方法的评价结果大致相似；差异分析说明地下水生态位的评价方法更全面、科学合理且符合实际。生态位理论将为地下水开采潜力评价分析提供一种新的、甚至是根本性的尝试。

Evaluation of groundwater exploitation potentiality in the Hebei Plain based on Niche Theory

The groundwater exploitation potentiality evaluation, a part of the groundwater resources evaluation, is aimed at providing references for the groundwater management, planning and development. Traditional evaluation methods, using single indicator for evaluation, fail to take into account all the factors affecting the groundwater exploitation potential. Thus it is of great importance to develop a more comprehensive evaluation method and theory. The idea, that the spatial distribution and dynamic change of groundwater are not only affected by the socio economic development and exploitation technology, but also influenced by self regulation, agrees with Niche Theory. In this paper, following a discussion on the definition of groundwater niche and its calculation formula and evaluation index system, the groundwater niche calculations, as well as analyses of groundwater niche clustering and exploitation potential were carried out in 9 cities in the Hebei Plain. The results were compared with those obtained using the traditional methods. As the results show, the evaluation method based on Niche Theory ranks the groundwater exploitation potential for the 9 cities, from high to low, as Tangshan, Xingtai, Handan, Baoding, Langfang, Hengshui, Shijiazhuang, Cangzhou and Qinhuangdao. Compared with the traditional methods, the two evaluation approaches yield similar ranking results with the exceptions of Baoding, Qinhuangdao and Langfang. The discrepancy demonstrates that the evaluation method based on Niche Theory, as described in this paper, is more comprehensive, scientific, rational and realistic. We believe Niche Theory will provide a new and may even be a paradigm shift in our approach for the evaluation of groundwater exploitation potentiality.